Even though the number of open positions has decreased from record highs, it is still historically high at 1.2 million, down from a peak of 860,000 in the decade before the pandemic. There are also fewer workers for firms to compete for due to the workforce’s ongoing contraction due to an increase in long-term illness and early retirement.
Due to the £70 billion furlough program that preserved jobs, the pandemic recession was remarkable in that a surge of layoffs did not accompany it. The unemployment rate increased by 1.4 percentage points during the crisis, reaching a high of 5.2 percent.
Additional Read: How to Hire Overseas Workers to fill Recruiting Gaps in the UK.
In comparison, during the financial crisis, the unemployment rate increased by more than three percentage points to a peak of 8.5 percent, by almost 4 points to 10.7 percent during the early 1990s recession, and by nearly 7 points to 11.9 percent during the first half of the 1980s.
City analysts predict that this recession, brought on by the cost of living crisis and exacerbated by interest rate increases, will cause the unemployment rate to rise from its current level of 3.6 percent to just 4.4 percent next year and 4.8 percent in 2024, well below increases seen in previous crises.
The Institute for Employment Studies’ Tony Wilson predicts that businesses would strive to increase “efficiencies and pay restraint rather than layoffs” this time, with the effect being “somewhat more broadly felt” by employers.
Given that staff, turnover is a major contributor to job openings, vacancies “may hold up very strongly generally.” Still, Wilson cautions that young workers will suffer from weaker hiring practices in new positions.
Additional Read: Can a “Monumental skills shortage” deter businesses from creating Jobs?
Even though the number of open positions is 48 percent more than before the pandemic, some indicate that hiring for professional positions, like those in HR and technology, may be slowing down.
Also, we can expect to see more companies facing legal action for firing employees. The new laws and employee protection measures that have been introduced will prevent companies from dismissals.
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